The Medicare Solvency Trigger is also known as the “45 percent trigger.” Medicare Trustees are required under the Medicare Modernization Act of 2003 (MMA) to estimate when program expenditures will exceed dedicated revenue. If the actuaries estimate the ratio will exceed 45 percent within seven years, an “excess general revenue funding” alarm is issued. If the determination is made in two consecutive years, a “Medicare Funding Warning” triggers a process in which the president and Congress are expected to participate. This is a technical, statutory provision that would face considerable political debate and conflict before any particular response emerged.
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